Iron Ore Prices Show Relative Resilience, Short-Term Sideways Movement May Continue [SMM Brief Commentary]

Published: Dec 25, 2025 17:56

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Today, iron ore futures fluctuated rangebound, with the most-traded contract I2605 closing at 778.5, up 0.58% from the previous trading day. Traders showed moderate willingness to sell; steel mills purchased as needed. Market trading activity was moderate. In Shandong, the transaction price for PB fines was 785-792 yuan, basically stable compared to yesterday's price; in Hebei, the transaction price for PB fines was 803-810 yuan/mt, also basically stable compared to yesterday's price.

Data today showed a slight decrease in the production of the five major steel products, with total inventory continuing to decline. Current end-use demand is in the off-season, and apparent consumption is expected to have further room to decline, with overall market sentiment leaning weak. However, as hot metal production gradually rebounds, coupled with strengthening expectations for pre-Chinese New Year stockpiling after entering January, supportive news flow may strengthen. Fundamentally, the supply-demand structure for iron ore remains better than that of finished steel, continuing to show relative resilience within the industry chain. Overall, iron ore prices are expected to continue a sideways movement in the near term.

Data Source Statement: Except for publicly available information, all other data are processed by SMM based on publicly available information, market communication, and relying on SMM‘s internal database model. They are for reference only and do not constitute decision-making recommendations.

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